Celtic Lion and the Global Stock Market Crash

We got contacted over the holidays by Newstart, a magazine for regeneration and economic development professionals, with a readership of about 30,000. Our task was to do an initial assessment of the Scottish Government's economic development strategy. A reworking of our Alex Salmond's Celtic Lion: A Cultural Perspective, was published in Newstart Friday 18th January Vol 10 No 417. The Lion Rampant.

It covered the 'single pursuit of economic growth' and a resulting dependence 'on an out of control and increasingly chaotic global dynamic'.

Three days later the global stock markets crashed. At time of posting it is not known how much the French banking fraud contributed to this, but at least that showed how much one person can affect the global system.

Thank you Paul Flynn MP

Our thanks to Welsh Labour MP Paul Flynn for the lovely review of some of our back catalogue of work over at his award winning site.

"The information you provide is of the greatest interest and I am grateful to read it. I hope your work will receive its due recognition".

Me, I respect politicians who also represent animals and the natural world, if you can't look after them, how can you look after people?

That might be a cultural thing, but this is Celtic Lion, not just Scottish Lion

Sir David King: Climate Change and Terrorism

Well the ex-chief scientific advisor to the UK Government has been getting a great deal of media coverage over his new book the Hot Topic.

Sir David King made his global reputation with the risk assessment that "climate change was a greater threat than terrorism". Every interview with him and newspaper article covers this point.

Unfortunately Sir David was not the original author, I was. the original was a submission in 2002 to United Nations Environment and Development UK report commissioned by the UK government on the future of sustainable development. The UNED-UK being part of the United nations Environmental Programme which I believe Sir David is a member of.

This is the original assessment on climate change and terrorism, placed on a sister site. It also relates climate change and Africa, the agenda of the 2005 G8 in Scotland.

It is usual scientific etiquette and methodology to cite the original source. Something Sir David has never done. Though it did make him a global climate change superstar.

Alex Salmond's Celtic Lion: A Cultural Perspective

The Scottish Nationalist Party waited more than 70 years until in May 2007, under the leadership of First Minister Alex Salmond, they formed the new Scottish Government. After an election campaign of pure genius, ideas, music, graphics and more contributing to the attrition of the Labour lead, the country waited for the next big idea.

On the world stage, not in Scotland, but at the Council for Foreign Relations in New York on the 12th November, Alex Salmond revealed his vision - the Scottish Celtic Lion. A Scotland equalling the economic growth rate of the UK as a whole by 2011 them matching that of other small independent EU countries by 2017.

So where did Salmon's Celtic Lion come from? A series of transpositions which began in the 1980s. The rapidly expanding Asian economies of South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan, got dubbed the East Asian Tigers. From 1994 Ireland's economy boomed, due to a number of factors. Membership of the EU, often given as a major influence, with up to 4% of GDP being transfer payments from other member states. Access to the markets of Europe, US investment, assisted by an English speaking, low wage workforce at the time of a high technology boom, amongst others. With a growth rate almost matching the Asian economies, Ireland became the Celtic Tiger.

So after the economic success of it's near neighbour, the SNP want Scotland to become the Celtic Lion.

Here the comparison could break down. Celtic Tiger is a descriptive term from 1994. Celtic Lion is a much older symbolism which may not fully reconcile itself with Alex Salmond's vision, but could provide broader, more expansive, inclusive and aspirational objectives for Scotland. A alternative version of the Celtic Lion which if the Scottish Government considered, might be more compatible to the interests of Scotland and more in keeping with the underlying small print of Alex Salmond's Celtic Lion vision.

As Alex Salmond in New York referred to, and at a later Gaelic college, Sabhal Mor Ostaig lecture, in Edinburgh on the 19th December spoke on, the need for a strong economy and a strong culture to go hand in hand. Perhaps the origins of the Celtic Lion need to be explored.

The Celts were a culture, not an empire, which covered most of Europe in pre Roman times, around 400 BC. A decentralised, trading network made up of individual tribes. After the rise of Rome, the culture continued in the Celtic fringe, Ireland, Wales and Scotland. Jewellery and artefacts show the lion was a common symbol in Celtic culture. Without a written record it is difficult to be precise, but it would not be unrealistic to consider it is similar to today's associations in terms of meaning. Courage, leadership, light, justice etc. The lion also having many meanings in heraldry, depending on how it is presented. The Scottish lion rampant, face in profile, is magnanimity.

Celtic culture had a strong affinity with the natural world, a relationship which persists today, whether in music or simply the way brand Scotland is marketed. Mountains, wildlife, lochs and surrounding seas. In terms of a cultural identity, Celtic Lion is perhaps more representative of leadership in environmental issues, rather than a single goal pursuit of increasing economic growth.

For the SNP Government it is not unreasonable for them to place increasing economic growth at the centre of their vision for Scotland. Alex Salmond is an economist, and one area of contention for the party is Scotland's oil. In the 1980s, when the high growth economies of Asia were taking off, they had to watch Scotland's assets contribute to fuelling the consumerism and business centric policies of Margaret Thatcher's UK Government. A situation they feel Scotland did not get the best end of the deal from. Now in power, why not have the attitude of "we can do that"?

The world has now moved on. Though world leaders discuss climate change, it is only one small part of the need to manage the planet more sustainably. Away from the headlines, beneath the veneer of traditional policies is the quest for the 'new development model'. Is there a better way to run a country or a planet than the strategies that have brought us to the edge of global ecological life support system collapse?

This may be the vision of Scotland's Celtic Lion given form, this may be the strategy that fulfils the subtext of the First Ministers speeches better than the pursuit of narrow economic growth strategies. In the quest for independence from the UK, Scotland runs the risk of being dependent on an out of control and increasingly chaotic global dynamic. Far better for Scotland to create it’s own destiny and even have the ability to lead the world to a better future.

The Scottish Government has exceeded many expectations in it's achievements and conduct so far, golf courses aside. The question is, do they have the courage to surpass their own aspirations? There is a way forward for Scotland which leaves the goal of increasing economic growth in the 80s. Is Scotland brave enough to seek the thistle and grasp it?

Getting a Balanced View of Trump

I read a lot of Scottish blogs and news about Trump and his Scottish Golfing ambitions. To get a overview when searching I have been looking at the US blog.


This ones from Dripdrop and the Donald's new reality TV show, and not his new celebrity The Apprentice.


If you think there's a bit of a stink kicked up in Aberdeenshire, it might not be the smell of sleaze Nicol Stephen has got a whiff of, but actual smell of Trump, from Blogging Stocks.

Considered Views Please on Scottish Development

Celtic Lion would like to request the impartial views and comment of the Scottish blogging community, political journalists and anyone else who would like to express an opinion.

This the situation. On Monday 17th December Celtic Lion Ltd got a phone call from a leading regeneration and economic development journal asking if we could provide an assessment of the Scottish Government’s economic development strategy.

After some conferring with the editor, I was asked whether I was aware of the SNPs approach and policy of relating Scotland to nearby countries such as Norway and Iceland.

Below or here is a development strategy that I was asked to write in February 2006. If you scroll down to Northern Tundra Alliance, this contains the paragraph.

"Scotland needs to form a group with its biome partners Sweden, Norway, Finland, Iceland, Greenland, Northern Russia and Alaska".

This was sent to all MSPs at Holyrood at the start of April 2006. 3 weeks later David Cameron turns up in Norway for his much publicised photo shoot with the huskies. Annabel Goldie's office acknowledgeing they had a copy by receipt. Then Cameron rebrands the Conservative Party, with a strategy remarkably close to the development strategy for Scotland, just without all the specifics to Scotland.

I contact SNP HQ to see if they can help in case any thing has gone on. I am put thorough to Kenny MacAskill’s people, as he was legal and justice spokesman at the time. They request a copy of the document, which was supplied. They never get back in touch despite phone calls and emails.
11 months later in the Perthshire Advertiser this appears from Pete Wishart MP, SNP.

"We have a detailed plan to deliver Scottish economic success. We have learnt lessons from our successful neighbours – Ireland, Norway and Iceland – each in the top six richest nations in the world. We believe Scotland can join them at the top of world wealth tables, but we need to be free to prosper.

From then on the SNP are relating Scotland to it’s nearest neighbours all the time, Ireland, Iceland and Norway.

Coincidence, prescience or what. All views from Scottish political and other bloggers on the matter would be appreciated.

Development Strategy for Scotland

In February 2006 after looking at a back catalogue of our work, consultants at Perth Business Gateway asked if we could produce an executive summary of how to make Scotland the world's first ecological superpower. The following consultation document was produced. At the beginning of April 2006 it was sent to every MSP at Holyrood.



Scotland: The World's First Ecological Superpower


In 2007 the United Nations Environmental Programme will produce a report showing climate change is far worse than was original accepted. Some leading climatologists already believe that we have already passed a point of no return and the deaths of billions of people and the extinction of most of the planets animals and plants is now inevitable.

MP2 believes this Extinction Horizon (EH) is 2012, that is we have 6 years to ensure the viable diverse future of the planet in some form that resembles what we accept as normal over the last few thousand years. If we have not established a sustainable global system by that date then those forecasts will come true.

In order to contribute to a better and safer future for the Earth and all living things that are part of and live on the planet, MP2 is creating a strategy to be implemented that will make Scotland the worlds first ecological superpower. Scotland will adopt a position that will lead the planet into a stable and sustainable future.

This will ensure it’s survival and the rest of the planet which it is part of. The urgency and importance of this project can be comprehended most easily in that 5 billion deaths over a 6 year period is the equivalent of around 2.5 million deaths per day, or 2 days to eliminate Scotland. Each day of delay now will cost half of Scotland’s population per day after 2012.

The Commonwealth Games 2014

Glasgow’s bid for the 2014 Games is significant as it is the first major world event after the 2012 EH. 2014 is a point defining an emerging development trajectory of global sustainable transition.
Adam Smith is one of Scotland's most influential philosophers. His Wealth of Nations
has development derived from the concept of empathy. Empathy with the planets ecological life support systems can drive Scotland to be the worlds first ecological superpower.

The Commonwealth
Of Nations
Games 2014

should be the worlds first organised event that is derived from working with, not against or at the expense of, the planets ecological life support systems.

Tourism is polluting. It is not possible to fly visitors and competitors to the Games, due to the damage it will cause. Air travel is expanding as one of the main contributors to climate change. By 2014 due to its consequences air travel will have to be banned apart from essential use, taxed prohibitively or will become the pariah of social unacceptability e.g. as drunk driving has been made or smoking in a public place will soon be.

Banning air travel to visit Scotland and the Games will be one drive in establishing Scotland as the world’s sustainable superpower. Ecologically driven development should permeate through the Games planning, organisational and implementational systems.

Shipbuilding

Provision will have to be made for the mass transit of people when air travel is banned or reduced. Scotland has a history of expertise in this industry. This expertise must be focused on designing and building a new generation fleet of ocean going vessels to replace air travel.

There are ideas and designs for modern wind and renewable powered vessels. Their production will create sustainable jobs in Scotland and make Scotland a major maritime force.

Oceanographic Research

Scotland has a history of such research. Though some of this derived from it’s whaling industry this was transposed into it’s construction of ice breaking vessels for exploration.

Only a small amount of knowledge is available on the oceans of the world. They are now being affected by climate change. Dissolving of CO2 in the water is causing acidification. This is reducing shelled animals ability to survive and destroying the coral reefs. What else?

The ocean currents are being disrupted by changing climate and the currents are changing climate. Reduction of oxygen capacity and alteration of nutrient cycles are affecting Scotland's fishing industry. Seabird populations, part of Scottish tourism, are reducing through the decrease in the availability of food.

Scotland can become a global leader in oceanographic research not only to protect it’s own interest but as a consultancy service to the rest of the world. This will create jobs in oceanography, ecology, climatology and the technologies associated with such research.

Scotland is vulnerable to ocean change. If the North Atlantic Drift stops, Scotland could enter a minor ice age prior to its temperature rising to meet the global increase.

Oceanic Clean Ups

For many years the seas have been used as a dump for a range of materials including chemicals. The oceans are already under pressure from changing climate and over fishing. Any additional stress such as pollution could trigger marine meltdown and a collapse of the oceanographic system.

The dumped chemicals and other pollutants need removing from the oceans. Scotland has transferable skills and technologies from the oil industry which can provide this essential service.

All the oceans need cleaning up. Scotland has the potential to lead the world in the technology. RPV (Remote Piloted Vehicle) experience from submarine rescue is another example of technology transfer.

As this is a global service this will have to be funded from the World Bank etc.

Research and Applied Planetary Engineering

Scotland is not just people. It is snow capped mountains in winter, the animals and plants and everything that is part of the whole called Scotland.

Can Scotland still be what it is if it loses what it was?

Everything on the planet is connected and related to everything else. If penguins, polar bears, the large mammals of Africa and the great apes are all going to become extinct in the next few years, then Scotland looking at its own bio-diversity will protect them.

Putting the protection of the ecology of the planet as the first major development priority has the affect of flipping a global system that is chaotic and unstable; extinctions, famine, droughts, conflict, extreme weather events, terminal etc, into a sustainable evolving one with the effective use of resources in attaining desirable goals.

Scotland decides what the maximum diversity and stability of its ecosystems is. This gives the optimum climatic conditions e.g. range and average temperatures. The appropriate levels of atmospheric CO2 are derived to attain these conditions, then social and economic processes and strategies are devised to bring them about in the shortest time.

The cascade affect from establishing ecosystem protection, enhancement and diversity then flows through the entire eco-socio-economic system generating stable sustained development and evolution.

To ensure it’s own survival Scotland only trades with others from the basic priority of ecosystem protection.

Having established the fundamental project principles for global sustainability Scotland sets the lead. One planet one goal sets a common focus for co-operation.

All consideration of strategy, policy, planning, implementation or action begins with , how does this protect or enhance the ecological systems of the planet? More simply do you want to live or do you want to die?

Northern Tundra Alliance (NTA)

Scotland as part of the UK is part of the EU and NATO it is also part of the Commonwealth. There are various other organisations it is part of through the UK, the G8, the UN etc.

The most important group Scotland should be part of does not exist. Scotland is unique within the UK as, climate change apart, it nearly has a permanent snow line at altitude. The climatic climax at altitude gives it an affinity with other countries of northern latitudes.

Scotland needs to form a group with its biome partners Sweden, Norway, Finland, Iceland, Greenland, Northern Russia and Alaska.

These are at risk of having their very essence altered by global warming. This temperate to cold belt up to the Arctic is essential to the survival of human society.

The climatic, meteorological, oceanic and nutrient cycling systems of the planet are driven by the temperature gradient between the equator and the Tundra regions. Once this gradient is lost the dynamism that powers the global biosphere disappears.

In the oceans nutrient cycles slow or stop. Productivity of the oceans decreases, fish stocks reduce or species become extinct. Weather patterns alter.

The maintenance of the viability of this region is far more important than an economic union. It is possible to survive without economic union. It is impossible without ecological viability.

Scotland must take a lead in establishing an organisation of countries linked with the preservation of the Tundra biome. This is crucial to Scotland's and global sustainability.

Energy and Resources

From the research in knowing the amount of reduction in CO2 required to restore and protect the Scottish ecology the energy policy for Scotland can be derived. It is not a question of reducing emissions, or going carbon neutral it is going carbon negative. It is the simple question again do you want to live or do you want to die?

Projects have to be delivered quickly with minimal or negative environmental impact and social and economic systems adjusted to conform to carbon negativity.

Roger Thomas
22 February 2006
Blairgowrie
Scotland